Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends SW to 03N18W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to south of the equator at 30W and to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from 08S to 02N between 22W and 49W.

Gulf Of America

Surface ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Recent buoy data continue to show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog is being reported over the NW and central Gulf waters

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night.

Caribbean Sea

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the trough, currently located NE of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

Abundant moisture across the eastern Bahama Bank, Windward Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters along with a short-wave trough aloft continue to fuel showers and tstms in connection with a surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary that extends from 23N66W and across the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated with the trough are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1019 mb highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over the NE offshores in connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough is forecast to lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas today before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through this evening as a cold front clips the region late today into early Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed night.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos