Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36.5W, from 12.5N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 06N between 34W and 41W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60.5W, from 14N southward into the Venezuela and Guyana border, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Guyana.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N27W. An ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S34W, then westward from 0.5S38W to near 00N47W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from 01S to 10N and east of 30W.

Gulf Of America

A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb high over the the NE Gulf to the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted off northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through early next week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient will tighten and SE winds will increase to fresh over the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week. A diurnal trough moving NW off the Yucatan Peninsula may cause strong winds to pulse each evening offshore.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge near 21N and a 1006 mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident at the northwestern and waters. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras into Tue. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface trough stretches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted, north of 26.5N between 56W and 66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present near the trough itself, including the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and TROPICAL WAVES sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 66W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1035 mb Azores High to near the southeast Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 27N between 42W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the Atlantic waters from 05N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, mainly fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas prevail. East of 35W, mainly fresh N to NE winds along with seas 6 to 9 ft prevail, except for strong NE winds of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, mainly tranquil marine conditions with moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv