Tropical Waves

An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has waned overnight.

An Atlantic tropical wave is crossing the Windward Islands this morning along 62W, from 13N southward into Venezuela, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over Venezuela.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ is noted from 01N40W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present along and S of the monsoon trough E of 24W.

Gulf Of America

Ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered just offshore the Carolinas is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughs along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, and 2 ft or less in the east.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into the middle of next week. With the high pressure centered NE of the region and lower pressure over Texas, the pressure gradient will support fresh SE winds over the western Gulf through early next week. Evening pulses of strong winds are expected to move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

Caribbean Sea

A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge oriented along 31N and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in the central basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean, except for gentle to moderate E winds with slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has increased in coverage overnight in association with this trough in the vicinity of the central Bahamas. N of 30N between 52W and 62W, moderate SW winds are ahead of the trough. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by a 1031 mb Azores high. This is leading to widespread moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 21N, rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail.

Posted 4 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik