Tropical Waves

A tropical wave is analyzed over the eastern Atlantic near 25W, from 16N southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48.5W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 15N to 17N between 49W and 51W.

A tropical wave is crossing the Lesser Antilles and currently along 62W, from 20N southward. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 12N to 18N between 55W and 65W.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 20N southward, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and extends to 07N25W, and then to 10N37W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 08.5N50W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between the coast of Africa and 17W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are analyzed from 06N to 11N between 30W and 35W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen in the far SW Caribbean generally S of 14N and W of 78W.

Gulf Of America

An upper trough extends across the western Gulf, supporting widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf W of 90W. High pressure off the east coast of Florida in the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh winds across the Straits of Florida, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are also occurring over the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle E to SE breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas persist elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin through the middle of next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. The exception will be moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night.

Caribbean Sea

A strong pressure gradient forced by a 1008 mb low over northern Colombia and high pressure in the Atlantic is leading to fresh to strong trade winds over the central to SW Caribbean, through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are found in the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds are also found across the eastern and west-central through northwestern basin with seas of 5 to 8 ft ft. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage are expected to diminish early Sun. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

An upper level trough over the central and northern Atlantic is expanding into the tropical Atlantic waters. A stationary front is analyzed N of the area, with a trough extending along 30N from a 1016 mb surface low near 31N59W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N52W to 28N60W to 28N68W. This results in scattered moderate convection along the second trough from 27N to 31N between 52W and 62W. More scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 30N between 68W and 73W.

The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging stemming from the 1031 mb Azores high. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft N of 25N between 20W and 36W. An area of moderate to fresh trades is also occurring from 13N to 21N between 40W and 55W, with seas of 5-7 ft in this region. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft are ongoing along the northern shores of the Greater Antilles and through the Florida Straits. The remainder of the Atlantic is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region, supporting fresh winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage through Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with mostly moderate seas are expected.

Posted 1 hour, 2 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Adams