Tropical Waves

A tropical wave has its axis near 88W south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras, the E Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and NE Nicaragua offshore waters.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of west Africa near 08N13W and continues to near 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17W to 07N35W to 05W52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 11N between 17W and 50W.

Gulf Of America

The tail of a dissipating stationary front extends across the Yucatan Channel to just the NW Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters and is bringing scattered showers to the Straits of Florida and portions of the SE Gulf mainly south of Cape Coral, Florida. A strong and broad ridge has built in the wake of this front, which continues to support a somewhat tight gradient leading to moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the SE basin as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas are moderate with these winds while slight seas are elsewhere, except to 6 ft in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will occur over much of the basin, away from the northwestern Gulf, tonight as the pressure gradient prevails between a stalled frontal boundary just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure building in the eastern U.S. Locally fresh E winds will become confined to areas east of 90W tonight into Wed as the front slowly dissipates. For Wed through late week, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over the Gulf. The next cold front, possibly strong, may enter the basin Sun and Sun night with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it.

Caribbean Sea

Strong high pressure over South Carolina continues to build a ridge across the SW N Atlantic waters behind a stationary front that starts to weaken across central Cuba into the SE Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, the eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough and a tropical wave moving across western Honduras is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the central through southwestern Caribbean into early Thu as the pressure gradient prevails between weak high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds will occur through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba this evening into Wed afternoon as high pressure builds to the north of a stalled frontal boundary draped over the northwestern Caribbean. Looking ahead, mainly moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the basin Thu into this weekend, freshening in the eastern and central portions late in the weekend. Rough seas in northerly swell will build in the Tropical N Atlantic late in the week and this weekend.

Atlantic Ocean

A cold front extends from 30N55W to 25N64W where it stalls and then continues to the southern Bahamas where it starts to dissipate. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are behind the front with seas 8 ft or higher affecting the offshores N of 27N. Ahead of the cold front, fresh to strong SW winds are observed N of 28N and eastward to 46W. Scattered showers are ongoing across the Bahamas and the approaches to the Straits of Florida. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 26N42W, which is providing moderate or weaker winds to this region. Otherwise, large NW swell is supporting rough seas to 10 ft N of 28N and E of the cold front all the way to the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the northern portion of the stationary front will progress eastward later tonight through midweek, leading to fresh to strong SW winds east of the front, north of 28N, into tonight. Fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected following the front, generally north of 29N this evening. Farther west, widespread moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles through Wed morning as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. Behind the front. N swell associated with the front will expand southeastward over the next several days, leading to rough seas north of 27N and east of 75W today, and north of 25N and east of 73W on Wed. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible in the central Atlantic north of 28N and east of 62W Wed through Thu morning. Looking ahead, rough seas will be reinforced over the waters east of 65W by Fri as a strong strong storm system passes north of the waters. The next cold front may approach the NW waters late in the weekend.

Posted 35 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Ramos