Tropical Waves

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 09N between 24W and 28W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N southward, moving west around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, from 17N southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11.5N to 15N between 64W and 70W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, from 18N southward, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 19N between 80W and 87W, while isolated convection is along the monsoon trough near the coast of Panama.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at 12N16.5W, and continues southwestward to 05N36W. The ITCZ then continues from 05N36W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08.5N between 12W and 21W.

Gulf Of America

An upper level trough extends from Missouri south-southwestward across eastern Texas and NE Mexico, and the adjacent Gulf waters, and is providing unstable conditions to the east of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring in the area between Cabo Rojo and Tampico, Mexico have mostly moved inland or weakened in the past hour. An outflow boundary has shifted southward off the central and southwest coasts of Louisiana and to the Texas border. This has initiated new thunderstorm activity across the coastal waters south of Cameron. Widely scattered showers dot the rest of the northern Gulf. At the surface, the Gulf is mainly influenced by the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, extending westward across north Florida and into the SE Louisiana. This configuration is producing gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3-5 ft seas across the western basin. Light to gentle southerly winds prevail across the eastern Gulf with seas of 3 ft or less, except for moderate SE winds through the Straits of Florida, where seas are 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf through the next several days. Fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south- central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic high pressure centered just east of Bermuda and lower pressure over Colombia and the SW Caribbean continues to support fresh to locally strong trades across the eastern and central Caribbean to 80W. Seas have built to 6-10 ft across these portions of the basin in response to these winds. In the NW Caribbean, moderate E to SE trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. Active convection accompanies the tropical wave along 83W and along the north coastal waters of Colombia.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to locally rough seas with these winds will gradually subside through Sat night.

Atlantic Ocean

Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information on tropical waves and active convection across the basin.

The subtropical Atlantic high pressure ridge persists along about 30N and is producing quiescent weather conditions across the basin, from western Africa into the Bahamas and the coast of Florida. Moderate or weaker trades and 4-5 ft seas prevail north of 20N, while moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail south of 20N. Highest winds and seas currently follow the tropical that has moved into the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast west of 55W, The Atlantic ridging is expected to persist along about 30N into the middle of next week and remain the dominant feature controlling the wind regime across the region. This combined with a continued flow of Saharan Air will keep marine conditions fairly benign. Pulsing fresh to locally strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week.

Posted 3 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Stripling